Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 10.557636 12.379494 14.371805 16.705668 19.357760 22.270686 25.704913
2024-12-29 7.765223 10.249811 13.241770 17.078549 21.833265 27.495014 34.705978
2025-01-05 5.923410 8.668143 12.257747 17.221339 23.820491 32.197100 43.522594
2025-01-12 4.633098 7.436301 11.379307 17.197569 25.405217 36.388129 51.974764
2025-01-19 3.729129 6.511567 10.690173 17.219201 26.913267 40.479762 60.529683
2025-01-26 3.347303 6.273866 10.914394 18.511612 30.264761 47.306561 73.303772
2025-02-02 2.946084 5.911630 10.863669 19.333469 32.943735 53.327890 85.327930
2025-02-09 2.607060 5.581144 10.794544 20.079689 35.526712 59.348527 97.716814
2025-02-16 2.209540 5.059328 10.310521 20.054678 36.838113 63.482015 107.490670
2025-02-23 1.815447 4.458469 9.585270 19.502811 37.189462 66.085598 115.011177
2025-03-02 1.468755 3.876231 8.796071 18.717983 37.031346 67.804360 121.175069
2025-03-09 1.257204 3.540040 8.426666 18.648481 38.086624 71.548343 130.783962
2025-03-16 1.045085 3.161411 7.927184 18.297072 38.654229 74.604335 139.628799
2025-03-23 0.959663 3.075631 8.037009 19.172731 41.581829 81.944078 156.164405
2025-03-30 0.845634 2.887512 7.889753 19.497410 43.479981 87.585272 170.106134
2025-04-06 0.729751 2.663601 7.622148 19.528949 44.798166 92.257212 182.610911
2025-04-13 0.631763 2.463970 7.377055 19.573189 46.132481 97.025587 195.529374
2025-04-20 0.614374 2.507419 7.740094 21.022498 50.448339 107.588383 219.392191
2025-04-27 0.572687 2.462225 7.868641 21.941548 53.724196 116.361201 240.408843
2025-05-04 0.530871 2.405543 7.957622 22.774125 56.875128 125.061325 261.695615
2025-05-11 0.461968 2.233097 7.703395 22.746586 58.161775 130.205856 276.594489
2025-05-18 0.384118 2.000429 7.236836 22.131670 58.094024 132.660596 286.517951
2025-05-25 0.311587 1.759749 6.698009 21.256596 57.350490 133.692305 293.737232